Assume we take payroll to $150MM in 2009

And, we are successful in signing Ben Sheets, Orlando Cabrera, and KROD, here's what our 25 might look like next year:

C - (CR)inge (unless we can get a Molina or Kendall for cheap)
1B - Cabrera
2B - Polanco
SS - O. Cabrera
3B - Guillen
LF - Joyce
CF - Granderson
RF - Maggs
DH - Sheff (yikes)

Bench - Dusty Ryan
Bench - Thames
Bench - Raburn
Bench - Santiago


SP - Verlander
SP - Sheets
SP - Galaragga
SP - Bonderman
SP - Willis or Robertson or maybe Garcia?

RP - KROD
RP - Rodney
RP - Zumaya
RP - Seay
RP - Robertson or Willis (wow - could either of these guys pitch in relief?)

Next Year

Looking at contracts for 2009, there's only one (seemingly easy) decision to make on club options: Renteria's $3MM buyout. Other than that, there are a few players under club control that will need to be resigned - most notable: Galarraga, Zumaya, Rodney, Miner; and a few free agents that should resign with Tigers: Seay, Santiago, Thames.

Assuming Tigers buyout Renteria and resign notables plus a few extras, looks like Tigers will have a payroll in the $115 - 118MM range.

Compared with '08 roster payroll of $138MM, that leaves $20MM to spend assuming budget set at last year's budget. We should be able to sign Sheets for $12MM in first year (5 more escalating years) and Orlando Cabrera for $8MM? Then, does Illitch increase the budget to say, $150MM? If so, we could afford Krod. I like this team already.

September Callups

I'm looking forward to Sept 1. This year - as opposed to the last two years - the Tigers are unarguably out of the playoff mix and should be looking at roster expansion as opportunity to further evaluate minor league players against major league competition. Of course to comprehensively evaluate Detroit's best talent we'd have to watch Florida Marlin games (that's a cheap shot and I really don't think that Cabrerabuster was a bad deal...).

I'd love to see:
more Dusty Ryan than Brent Cleven
more Wilkin Ramierez than Mike Holliman
more Chris Lambert than Virgil Vazquez
more Danny Worth than Mike Hessman
more cowbell
and for the love of god, no more Bonine!

Monumentally Bad

Let's say average analyst (ESPN, Baseball Prospectus, Vegas, etc) predicted The Detroit Tigers would win 92 games this year. Now, let's say they end up winning only 72 games this year. Is there a greater underperformance with respect to expectations in recent history?

This is really bad

If the Tigers reach 0-9, their season is effectively done. I realize they will continue to play games, but no team has reached the playoffs after starting out 0-9. The Tigers not making the playoffs would NOT be totally unexpected; The Tigers missing the playoffs like this? Unprecedented.

Tigers 2008: Hot Stove Strategy

Open Letter to Dave D,

Here's what you do:

• Ask Gary Sheffield to play LF (he's not that bad defensively and perhaps he won't break down?)
• Sign Bonds to an incentive-laden deal that costs you $9m for the season at 450 plate appearances
• Sign Luis Gonzalez for one year - $3.5m
• Sign Eric Gagne for two years - $10m
• Sign Jones for one year - $1.05
• Sign Rogers for one year - $2.05

Now, for $17.5m additional payroll next year, you're ready to go dealing. Sure, these guys are old, but you'd have enough of them in case one or two can't hack an entire season. Next:

• Deal Miller, Maybin and Inge for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. You'll have to offer to pay 1/2 of Inge's contract (costing you ~$20m) and you'll have to pay arbitration $$ for Cabrera (costing you ~$30m over next two years)

So, here's how you'd look in April:

SP: Verlander, Bonderman, Willis, Rogers and Robertson

RP: Jones, Gagne, Rodney, Grilli, Seay, de la Cruz, and some other arm

C - Pudge

1B - Guillen

2B - Polanco

SS - Renteria

3B - Cabrera

LF - Sheff

CF - Granderson

RF - Maggs

DH - Bonds

Bench - Gonzalez, Raburn, Wilson

What do you think?

Heat

Very reassuring video piece by ESPN:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview07/index

Zumaya talking in detail about how hard he works and what he considers success (not hitting 103, but hitting the black). He's a mutant.