Tigers 2008: Hot Stove Strategy

Open Letter to Dave D,

Here's what you do:

• Ask Gary Sheffield to play LF (he's not that bad defensively and perhaps he won't break down?)
• Sign Bonds to an incentive-laden deal that costs you $9m for the season at 450 plate appearances
• Sign Luis Gonzalez for one year - $3.5m
• Sign Eric Gagne for two years - $10m
• Sign Jones for one year - $1.05
• Sign Rogers for one year - $2.05

Now, for $17.5m additional payroll next year, you're ready to go dealing. Sure, these guys are old, but you'd have enough of them in case one or two can't hack an entire season. Next:

• Deal Miller, Maybin and Inge for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis. You'll have to offer to pay 1/2 of Inge's contract (costing you ~$20m) and you'll have to pay arbitration $$ for Cabrera (costing you ~$30m over next two years)

So, here's how you'd look in April:

SP: Verlander, Bonderman, Willis, Rogers and Robertson

RP: Jones, Gagne, Rodney, Grilli, Seay, de la Cruz, and some other arm

C - Pudge

1B - Guillen

2B - Polanco

SS - Renteria

3B - Cabrera

LF - Sheff

CF - Granderson

RF - Maggs

DH - Bonds

Bench - Gonzalez, Raburn, Wilson

What do you think?

Heat

Very reassuring video piece by ESPN:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview07/index

Zumaya talking in detail about how hard he works and what he considers success (not hitting 103, but hitting the black). He's a mutant.

What a shame

From the New York Daily News:
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/2007/03/18/2007-03-18_clean_machine.html
Is Humberto Sanchez damaged goods and the Yankees simply don't want to admit it? The hard-throwing South Bronx product, who was the primary pitcher obtained from the Tigers in the Gary Sheffield trade, has been sidelined all spring with an elbow inflamation. And in the Yankee press guide, three of Sanchez's earlier disabling injuries that appear in last year's Tiger guide - to the right shoulder and bicep in 2002 and a season-ending elbow ailment in 2003 - have been curiously omitted.
Obviously baseball fans everyone would be crushed if the Yankees felt they received a bad product, and felt compelled to cover it up. Tragic.

I WAS excited about Sheff

"Torre disprespected me." Or, "this is a witch hunt". So, in the four minutes Sheffield has been in Lakeland, he's gone after HOF2B and overall nice guy Joe Torre and Senator Mitchell/MLB. Can't wait to see/hear what's next...

Can't help it

I know Gammons is very pro, well, everyone - but he listed Gary Sheffield as a person he's excited to see this season:

• Gary Sheffield, OF, Detroit. As long as his hand and wrist are healthy, the Tigers have put one of the fiercest bats in the business in their lineup. Sheff is a foxhole guy.

Pitchers and catchers report. How can you not be excited by this?

sloppy

Just read this article on espn.com by John Shea. He writes for the SF Chronicle (it says at the bottom of the piece):

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove06/columns/story?id=2756314&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab4pos2

Wow, did I find many issues with his not well thought out views. Alou a nice addition to Mets lineup? (I love when folks qualify statements with, "if he's healthly...".) Soriano will improve Cubs' OBP? (Has Soriano taken a pitch in the last three years?) Sosa may help in Texas? (minor league contracts are usually a pretty good sign of expectations).

Should A-ROD OPT-OUT?

Simply? No.

It seems the pundits are complicating this decision to the nth degree, per usual. They are looking to make the opt-out clause into some kind of PR tool that will "allow" Arod to escape NYC with face in place. Need I remind everyone that Arod is represented by Scott Boras, and Scott Boras does not care about face or feelings - he cares about cutting the best deal.

Boras advised JD Drew to opt-out of a nice contract with the Dodgers (3 more years at average annual salary of $11M) to get a nicer (pending) contract with the Red Sox (5 years at average annual salary of $14M). In this case, Drew locked up more years at higher salary rate.

Now, after this year ends, Arod has the option to opt out of remaining three years and ~$80M owed to him. If he were to do this, he could easily get a Vernon Wells/Soriano type of deal: 7 years for $130M or so. That's average annual of $18.5M - and locks him up until he's 38. Nice.

But, this path assumes his market value in 2011 (age 35) would be less than $18.5M and 5 years. This I can't understand. in 2009, Arod will be 34 years old and well on his way to chasing every offensive record known to mankind: home runs, runs, RBI, total bases, etc. He will be just shy of 650 HRs, 1800 RBI - I would think that chase alone would be attractive to a few teams.

So, look at present value of (very good) new contract in 2008, with keeping existing contract and signing new (average) deal in 2010:

Opt-out: new deal, 2008 - 2016 (ages 32 - 40) = $148M
Stay with current deal, then sign new deal in 2011 for 5 years at $14M a year (total compensation from 2008 - 2015 (ages 32 - 40) = $151M

This is just raw dollars, too. If you were to (and I stress, YOU) do an NPV on both those deals, the second contract would be even more attractive because so much of money is front loaded.

Someone needs to tell Steve Phillips he's no longer spending Mr. Wilpon's money and he should be more careful with his math.

Juan Gone, Back?

According to published reports in Puerto Rico, the Angels, Tigers and Orioles have all expressed interest in signing Juan Gonzalez, the former two-time MVP.

Ichiro?

Granted, the world of sports talk radio - especially local sports talk radio - is made up of 95% conjecture and unsubstantiated rumors and 5% of real news/journalism. Yet, yesterday's yarn consisted of an interesting - albeit fantastic - proposition: what would you give up to get Ichiro. First I'll say there's little to no chance the Mariners give up Ichiro. He's one of ten players in MLB that has a direct impact on ticket sales. And, he's still a merchandise gold mine in US and Japan. Finally, the Mariners are not hurting for cash with one of the most lucrative local TV, Cable and Radio deals in a city not named New York or Los Angeles or Boston.

Yet, the scenario (sportstalkradioshpere proposed a "would you trade" Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller for Ichiro?) is interesting from a broader sense: what is the true value of highpo minor league players? Boston dealt Anibal Sanchez, Hanley Ramierez, Harvey Garcia and Jesus Delgado to get Josh Beckett (and the right to overpay Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota). I think this deal provides a baseline comp for someone like Ichiro: Mariners would need to receive one to two top five system prospects, one to two top 25 system prospects, and bad contract relief.

Suspension of disbelief offer:
Tigers: Maybin, Miller or Tata and Durbin
Mariners: Ichiro and one bad contract (there are many to choose from and more being added everyday from Sexson to Beltre to Washburn to now Weaver - but check out this great site to pick your favorite, worst contract http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/seattle-mariners.html)

I'd make that deal in a second.

Welcome

Ah, my audience. Welcome to a first of its kind - a blog on major league baseball with specific emphasis on the Detroit Tigers. Well, of course, this is one of many, but rest assured, my posts will be very different from everything else you read. I hope.