Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Ichiro?

Granted, the world of sports talk radio - especially local sports talk radio - is made up of 95% conjecture and unsubstantiated rumors and 5% of real news/journalism. Yet, yesterday's yarn consisted of an interesting - albeit fantastic - proposition: what would you give up to get Ichiro. First I'll say there's little to no chance the Mariners give up Ichiro. He's one of ten players in MLB that has a direct impact on ticket sales. And, he's still a merchandise gold mine in US and Japan. Finally, the Mariners are not hurting for cash with one of the most lucrative local TV, Cable and Radio deals in a city not named New York or Los Angeles or Boston.

Yet, the scenario (sportstalkradioshpere proposed a "would you trade" Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller for Ichiro?) is interesting from a broader sense: what is the true value of highpo minor league players? Boston dealt Anibal Sanchez, Hanley Ramierez, Harvey Garcia and Jesus Delgado to get Josh Beckett (and the right to overpay Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota). I think this deal provides a baseline comp for someone like Ichiro: Mariners would need to receive one to two top five system prospects, one to two top 25 system prospects, and bad contract relief.

Suspension of disbelief offer:
Tigers: Maybin, Miller or Tata and Durbin
Mariners: Ichiro and one bad contract (there are many to choose from and more being added everyday from Sexson to Beltre to Washburn to now Weaver - but check out this great site to pick your favorite, worst contract http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/seattle-mariners.html)

I'd make that deal in a second.

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